Prices & action · 4 min read
Move the spread or the juice? Check what happens at three
A made-up $11,000 wager shows how changing the spread creates a different risk from changing the price.
First ask why you want to move
In this made-up football example, you have $11,000 booked on a favorite -3 at -110. More favorite bets keep coming. Should you move to -3.5, or charge a higher price at -3?
Start with the reason for the change. Has new information changed your view of the game? Or are you still happy with the number but want less money on that side? The same pile of favorite tickets can raise either question.
Circa’s January 2020 guide to line moves describes several causes, including player news, informed bets and heavy public action. It notes that a small bet from a respected player can move a line. Size alone does not tell you what the bet means.
A price move keeps the push in place
The juice is the price attached to the spread. At -110, a player risks $110 to win $100. At -120, the player must risk $120 to win the same $100. Both favorite -3 bets still push if the favorite wins by exactly three.
Suppose you change the next offer from favorite -3 at -110 to -3 at -120. You also offer the underdog +3 at +100, where a player can win the same amount they risk. You have made one side cost more and the other pay more, while keeping the spread at three.
That change applies only to new bets. The $11,000 favorite ticket already booked at -110 can still win $10,000. A later price move does not change that ticket.
A spread move changes the result at three
Now compare a different choice: favorite -3.5 and underdog +3.5, both at -110. The extra half point lets the new underdog ticket win when the favorite wins by three. The old favorite -3 ticket would push at that result.
Assume one new bettor risks $11,000 on the underdog at each possible offer. These are three separate versions of the same example, not three bets added together. The table below compares them with the original favorite ticket.
Leave the offer at +3 at -110, and each side can win $10,000. The book earns $1,000 if either side covers; it earns nothing if both push at three. Change the underdog to +3 at +100, and its possible profit rises to $11,000. That leaves the book at zero if the underdog covers.
Move the underdog to +3.5 at -110, and its profit stays $10,000. But the book can now lose that $10,000 at a three-point margin: the old favorite bet pushes while the new underdog bet wins.
Choose the next offer, not just a smaller imbalance
If you still trust the spread, a price change gives you a way to lean toward the other side without changing which margins win or push. Check the new payout cost as well as the extra stake you would collect on future favorite bets.
If player news or bets you trust change your view of the game, review the spread itself. Do not keep an old number only because moving it could leave a costly result between accepted lines. You still need an offer you are willing to book.
These sample prices are not equal in value. The table does not tell you which will earn more over time. That depends on how likely each margin is, what prices are fair and which new bets you actually receive. No change promises the same $11,000 underdog bet.
Map the next ticket before you take it
Write down the current bets, the next offer and the results where their settlements differ. Check the full book, including related bets, before choosing how much more action to accept. A pair of opposite teams is not enough to show that the risk is covered.
For a case where both sides can win, read our related guide to the $35,000 middle below. For the size of the next bet, see the guide to stake limits and accepted odds. The next step here is to compare one proposed price change with one proposed spread change on your own position.
All teams, stakes and offers in this example are fictional. We assume ordinary two-way straight spread bets with stakes returned on a push. No loss described here is a reported sportsbook result. The Bookie Brief is owned by HeadCount.
Three offers for the next underdog bet
| Final result | Leave: +3 at -110 | Juice: +3 at +100 | Spread: +3.5 at -110 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite wins by 4+ | +$1,000 | +$1,000 | +$1,000 |
| Favorite wins by 3 | $0: both push | $0: both push | −$10,000 |
| Favorite wins by 2 or less, ties, or loses | +$1,000 | $0 | +$1,000 |
Each column is a separate hypothetical choice. The original bet is $11,000 on favorite -3 at -110, to win $10,000. Each new underdog bet risks $11,000. Figures show book profit or loss after returning stakes on wins and pushes. Other bets, fees and promotions are excluded.
Sources: Circa: why lines move · DraftKings: American odds · DraftKings retail spread rules · The $35,000 middle · Stake limits and accepted odds · Starting a book · Running a book